Warning: Spoilers from both The Walking Dead TV show and comics are included in this article. Read at your own risk. Also, this can all be completely wrong. Like I said, these are theories, and only theories.
Here's the full lineup, from Negan's left to right: Glenn, Rosita, Daryl, Michonne, Abraham, Maggie, Rick, Sasha, Aaron, Carl, Eugene.
The Angle
Let's talk about the camera angle first, since that told me where in the lineup it seemed Negan was. It's pointed upwards, obviously since the person is kneeling on the ground, but it's slightly angled to the left. Because of that, it would seem that Negan is towards his left side (Glenn, Rosita, etc.). It's also not low to the ground. It seems to be more upright and tall, which is why I feel like the angle doesn't match Daryl or Glenn, who were both slumped down in their spots. The angle also seems similar to the angle we see when the camera is behind Abraham.
Lighting
Similar to how the angle tells us where Negan seems to be in the lineup, the lightning does too. The light source is mainly on Negan's right, since that's where the scene's the brightest and when he's talking to Carl, you can see that since there's a brighter light on his face. In the scene from the victim's POV, the left side of his face (his left) is shadowed, while the right side is dimly lit. This shows that he's far away from the light and that it's coming from his right hand side. This would also prove that he's near Glenn, Daryl, Abraham, etc.
Who We Can Definitely Rule Out
Simply put: Rick and Carl. Negan's comment: "Anybody moves, anybody says anything, cut the boy's other eye out and feed it to his father," pretty much states that Rick and Carl aren't falling victim to Lucille. Negan also has a soft spot for Carl in the comics, which will be an interesting storyline to see play out on TV. It's a crucial contrast in his character since he's this cruel person, yet grows to care for Carl to a great extent.
Why it's Unlikely to be a Woman
According to word from all of the comic lovers, a distinct character trait of Negan's is that he has his own moral code against killing women and children. So we're most likely going to see a male character dead come October.
Why Wait?
If the intention was to follow the scene directly from the comics, why wait? They've teased Glenn's death once already and everyone knows how that scene ends in the comics, so why wait and leave the audience with a cliffhanger? If it is Glenn, the scene may have had more of an impact to see him in the moment instead of having to wait to find out. His death already having been teased may also make the scene lose its impact if it's him (though it would still certainly be heartbreaking). That's why I'm inclined to think they may choose a different route, and not even the cast knows who's died yet. Maybe it's not as big of a character and the cliffhanger was meant to draw more suspense for when it's actually revealed. Killing off a minor, but still loved, character makes a bigger impact with a cliffhanger than without one.
What About the Possibility of Leaks?
With every TV show that ends on a cliffhanger, you always have the possibility of leaks in the future regarding future scripts or even set pictures that reveal who's there and who's not. Something similar happened with Game of Thrones where pictures of Kit Harrington (Jon Snow) were taken on set after he was thought to be dead. If that happens for the premiere, the episode loses its shock value, so if it is a big character, the show's going to have to do a really good job at keeping it a secret when filming resumes.
The Tricky Part
There is one part that's confusing some people, including myself. If the POV from the van was in fact a character's POV and that same POV matches the POV of the character that's killed by Negan, it would have to be Glenn, Rosita, Daryl, or Michonne. Being that the person was clearly in the back of the van since you can see a head in front, and assuming it isn't a woman, Glenn is the last one to get out of the van, so if the POV matches, it could be him. The thing is whether this is from the same POV as the last scene of the episode, but you can't be certain it is.
So, whose end will come by Lucille? The three candidates we put together are Daryl, Glenn, and Abraham.
Daryl: Because Norman has a new show on AMC. However, that can film when he's not filming The Walking Dead. He's also one of the most loved characters on the show, so if they have him on both shows, that's more money for AMC.
Glenn: It happens in the comics, pretty much exactly how it happened on the show, including Negan saying, "Takin' it like a champ!" Like I said earlier though, if they were going to follow through with the ending, why not end it with us seeing Glenn get hit?
Abraham: For me, he's the most logical guess if they do indeed choose to go in a different direction from the comics (which seems possible). He straightened his body and raised himself up when Negan approached him, which could match the height of the camera angle. He's also in the general area Negan's in. Not to mention that in the comics, he's actually the one that dies in the scene where we saw Denise die.
Now, like I said earlier, these points are all part of theories and it's possible some overanalyzing happened, but all we have is this episode and that final scene to figure out who the death could be, so all of the details of that episode have to be considered. While this may all be wrong, and that's perfectly fine, my final guess... Negan uses Lucille to kill Abraham. He fits the things I saw in this episode and we'll see in October how accurate that guess is.
If you have your own theory, leave it in the comments below. I'd love to hear your guesses because this truly has been one of the most interesting things to occur on the show to read theories about. Everyone seems to bring up something different. That's what makes cliffhangers so great. You can analyze and analyze until you have your theory, yet the creators can still throw a curveball that wasn't expected. It can't be denied that the finale was awesome and so well done. The suspense was built perfectly throughout and by the end, you, as a viewer, were just as fearful as the characters in the scene. Not to mention that it was the first time we've truly seen Rick fearing for his life and the lives of those around him in quite a while, if ever. The acting was outstanding and I'm very excited to see more of Jeffrey Dean Morgan as Negan.
One thing's for sure: I look forward to seeing who meets their end, no matter how emotional it makes me.
See you in October.
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